With Existing-Home Sales On The Rise, Could Wall Street Be Right About Housing?

Despite the holiday hubbub, homes sales continued their upward trend in December. The National Association of Realtors says existing-home sales, or completed sales on single-family homes, co-ops, condos and townhomes, ticked up 5% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.61 million. There were 3.6% more sales completed during the month than during December of 2010 and NAR says that completed sales were 1.7% higher for the entire 2011 year as compared to 2010.

The total housing inventory fell 9.2% to 2.38 million existing homes for sale. At the current sales pace that represents a 6.2-month housing supply — the lowest level of inventory logged in nearly seven years and lower than the seven-to-eight month inventory levels NAR has said indicate steady home prices.

“The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,” asserted Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, in a statement.  “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.”  Is Yun right? Could these numbers reflect the hopeful signs of a housing market recovery this year? That depends on who you ask.

Wall Street has grown increasingly bullish in recent weeks about housing. No, firms don’t necessarily think home prices will rebound anytime soon, but many believe that 2012 is the year of the bottom. Goldman Sachs Group released a December report indicating that the home price bottom is in sight. Earlier this week JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon told Maria Bartiromo that, “We have seen the worst. We are at the bottom. We may hug along the bottom for a while, but we are at the bottom.”  And Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told The Street that she also believes housing is nearing its bottom, though a rebound will take years to develop and will occur on a more regional basis. The list goes on.

But market bottom and market rebound remain two different things. Even if the bottom is nigh for housing, price appreciation will take time to settle in. The number of completed sales may have finished the fourth quarter of 2011 in an upward trend, but homeowners need to remember that increased sales don’t automatically mean increased prices. In fact it can mean the opposite.

This Week's Market Commentary

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite a strong open in stocks. The Dow is currently up 112 points while the Nasdaq has gained 28 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point from Friday’s morning pricing.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release today, but the rest of the week brings us five pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. Two of them are considered to be highly important for the bond market and mortgage rates. The financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Martin Luther King holiday.

The first report of the week will be posted early tomorrow morning when the Labor Department’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. The PPI is important to the markets and mortgage rates because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the more important core data reading that excludes volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could mean higher mortgage rates tomorrow since inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market. It erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, making them less attractive to investors. Accordingly, they are sold at a discount to offset the drop in value, which drives their yields higher. And since mortgage rates follow bond yields, this means higher rates for borrowers.

December’s Industrial Production report will also be posted tomorrow morning, but at 9:15 AM ET. This data measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength or weakness. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in production of 0.5% from November’s level. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and could help lower mortgage rates, but the PPI is by far the most important data of the day for the bond market and will have the biggest impact on that day’s mortgage pricing.

Overall, today will likely be the least active day for mortgage rates. The most important day will probably turn out to be tomorrow or Thursday with the two key inflation readings scheduled. But the stock markets and news from overseas can be a big influence on bond trading and mortgage pricing any day, so maintaining contact with your mortgage professional is recommended.

As Economy Grows, Jobs Are Still Scarce, Fed Says

Economic expansion improved last month across most of the country while hiring was limited and housing remained stagnant, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

The economy “expanded at a modest to moderate pace” from late November through the end of December on increased holiday retail sales, demand for services and oil-and-gas extraction, the Fed said in its beige book business survey. At the same time, most industries saw “limited permanent hiring,” and the housing market remained “sluggish.”

The report may reinforce the views of a majority of Fed officials, who see an economy that is expanding without being strong enough to reduce joblessness as quickly as they would prefer. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent in December from 9.4 percent a year earlier. Fed officials are urging lawmakers to try more housing-aid programs.

“The reports on balance suggest ongoing improvement in economic conditions in recent months,” the Fed said in the report, which comes out two weeks before each meeting on monetary policy. “The combination of limited permanent hiring in most sectors and numerous active job seekers has continued to keep a lid on general wage increases.”

The beige book report reflects a “slightly better tone, slightly better data,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief United States economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. Even so, “the financial market has taken recent Fed commentary as generally dovish and as a signal that the Fed is perhaps exploring more easing measures.”

The residential real estate market “largely held steady at very low levels” except for increasing construction of multifamily homes, the beige book said. The rental market tightened in some areas, the report said.

The Fed said in the report that inflation and pressures to raise prices were limited at the end of last year. Several district banks reported that “upward price pressures from rising commodity and input prices have eased substantially,” the Fed said.

Three Must-Read Personal Finance Books

There are many informative and interesting books about managing your personal finances out there. These three are some of the best stand-outs to make a change in the way you view and handle your money.

1. The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
The author of this book is considered one of the best financial investors of the century, and his advice is still extremely relevant since its original publishing in 1949. His stock market strategies are highly well-respected, and this book will give you a deeper understanding of how to invest your money.

2. The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey
This bestseller is a great overview to managing your finances. It covers getting out of debt, investing, saving for emergencies, college, paying off your mortgage, and much more.

3. The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko
This book explains what people not just in Beverly Hills or the Upper East Side are doing to make themselves financially successful. It goes over the seven common key traits that the authors have found that wealthier people possess, maybe even your next door neighbor, and shows you how to cultivate them for yourself.

Do you have any favorite personal finance books that belong on this list? Add them to the comments!

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of four pieces of economic data to digest along with two important Treasury auctions. None of them are scheduled for today or Tuesday, meaning all of the week’s events will come over two and a half days.

Until we get to the week’s first relevant event Wednesday afternoon, look for the stock markets to be a major contributor to movements in bond prices and mortgage rates. Stock strength will likely equate into bond weakness and higher mortgage rates, and vice versa if stocks fall.

The first relevant report of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. Since the Fed relies heavily on it during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises, particularly regarding inflation, unemployment or future hiring.

The two important Treasury auctions will be held Wednesday and Thursday when 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds are sold. The 10-year sale is the more important of the two as it will give us a better indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Thursday has December’s Retail Sales data scheduled, which is the most important report of the week and one of the more watched releases we get each month. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in sales of approximately 0.4%. A smaller than expected increase in sales would indicate consumers did not spend as much as thought over the holiday season, helping to prevent rapid economic growth. That would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The last two reports will be posted Friday morning. The first is November’s Goods and Services Trade Balance at 8:30 AM ET. It the week’s least important data and probably will not influence mortgage rates. It measures the size of the U.S. trade deficit and is expected to show a $44.3 billion trade deficit. This data usually does not directly affect mortgage rates, but it does influence the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies. A stronger dollar makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors because they are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. But unless we see a significant variance from forecasts, I don’t believe this data will lead to a change in mortgage rates Friday.

The final report of the week is January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and often has enough of an impact on the financial markets to slightly change mortgage rates. Good news would be if it shows a reading weaker than the 75.0 that is expected. December’s final reading was 71.0, indicating that consumer sentiment likely rose this month. The bond market prefers to see waning confidence because if consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations, they are less apt to make large purchases in the near future. Slowing spending levels limits fuel for economic growth, making long-term securities such as mortgage bonds more attractive to investors.

Overall, Thursday will likely turn out to be the most important day of the week due to the Retail Sales report but Wednesday’s Beige Book and 10-year Note auction may also cause some volatility in the markets. However, any day can become active if the stock markets show significant gains or losses. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week, especially the latter part if still floating an interest rate.

Fed Officials Push More Help for Housing

Three top Federal Reserve officials aggressively pushed on Friday for more stimulus for the U.S. housing market, saying that other government policymakers as well as the central bank should be looking at ways to help the sector in order to speed the economic recovery.

In separate speeches, the Fed officials -- William Dudley, the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank; Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke; and Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed -- warned that the fragile housing sector threatens to derail a U.S. recovery.

Their remarks came even as a robust government jobs report provided fresh evidence that the recovery is gaining.

The push for action came two days after the Fed entered the thorny debate over how to use the two main government-run mortgage finance firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to turn around the housing market.

The housing sector was at the heart of the financial crisis and recession and has continued to hamper the recovery.

A 33 percent decline in U.S. housing prices since 2006 has resulted in an estimated $7 trillion loss of household wealth, and about 12 million U.S. homeowners are currently underwater on their mortgages.

Policymakers need to consider more action to kick-start housing and to help the country's "frustratingly slow" economic recovery and "unacceptably high" unemployment, Dudley said in a speech in New Jersey.

Monetary policy should work to complement actions by other U.S. government policymakers, which together could help to stabilize home prices and turn around the housing market within a year or two under good conditions, he said.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week bring us the release of only three monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, but two of them are considered to be highly important.

In addition to those three reports, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that may influence the markets and possibly mortgage rates.  

The first report is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for December late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened.

That indicates manufacturing sector strength rather than contraction. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 53.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment strengthened from November’s 52.7. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers, while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning as it would point towards economic strength.

Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

The Commerce Department will post November’s Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 2.1% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The smaller the increase, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is arguably the most important monthly release we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and earnings would be ideal news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise from November’s unemployment rate of 8.6%, 150,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for tomorrow and Wednesday to be active due to the economic data and FOMC minutes scheduled. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we can expect to see mortgage rates move higher on the week.