Fed to Weigh Publishing a Forecast on Rates

The Federal Reserve’s decision three years ago to reduce short-term interest rates to nearly zero made a splash, both because the Fed had never pushed rates so low and because it said that it planned to keep rates near zero “for some time.”

Predicting its own future actions was a new step, an experiment in a time of crisis that the Fed has since repeated several times, most recently in August, when it said that it planned to keep interest rates near zero until at least the summer of 2013.

Now the technique looks increasingly likely to become a permanent method for influencing economic growth. When the Fed’s policy-making committee convenes on Tuesday, it will consider the idea of publishing a regular forecast of its future decisions on interest rates. Any such plan would most likely be announced no sooner than its next meeting, in January, when it is already scheduled to publish economic projections.

Forecasting policy is part of a broader set of changes that the Fed is considering to improve public understanding of its methods and goals. The Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and other officials say that improved communications could deliver a modest boost to the economy with relatively little risk. None of their other options for additional action are nearly so appealing.

“We are actively considering methods that we could use to provide greater clarity,” Janet L. Yellen, the Fed’s vice chairwoman, said after a recent speech in San Francisco. “Is it a game-changer? I feel that it could have some favorable impact. I don’t want to exaggerate how large that is.”

The meeting of the Fed’s policy-making committee on Tuesday comes at a moment of unusual uncertainty about the plans of other economic policy makers.